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UNIT No.
#1 - #2 - #3

Relationships Between Land Use/Cover and Macro-Forces of Change -- Instructor's Guide to Activities

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Module: Data Analysis
| Goal | Learning Outcomes | Choice of Activities | Suggested Reading with Guiding Questions |
| Activity 3.1 Finding Order in Chaos: Scatterplots | Activity 3.2 Feeding the Millions |
| Activity 3.3 What Depends on What in Land Use Change? |
| Activity 3.4 Land Use Change and Driving Forces at Different Scales | Activity 3.5 Film: Banking on Disaster |
Module: Interpretation of Results
| Goal | Learning Outcomes | Choice of Activities | Suggested Reading with Guiding Questions |
| Activity 3.6 Local Change -- Global Forces | Activity 3.7 The Personal Land Use Log |
| Activity 3.8 How Personal is Global Change? | Activity 3.9 What Can We Do About It Anyway? |


Data Analysis

Goal

In this first set of activities accompanying Unit 3, students learn to use some basic bivariate statistical tools in order to assess relationships between human driving forces and LULC change. They also learn to interpret the results of data analysis carefully and cautiously.

Learning Outcomes

After completing the first set of activities associated with Unit 3, students should:

Choice of Activities

It is neither necessary nor feasible in most cases to complete all activities in a unit. Instead, select at least two or more from each unit, covering a range of activity types, skills, genres of reading materials, writing assignments, and other activity outcomes. This unit contains the following activities:

3.1 Finding Order in Chaos: Scatterplots -- Understanding scatterplots, correlations

3.2 Feeding the Millions -- Constructing scatterplots

3.3 What Depends on What in Land Use Change? -- Simple regression analysis

3.4 Land Use Change and Driving Forces at Different Scales -- Regression analysis and interpretation

3.5 Film: Banking on Disaster -- Critical film interpretation and discussion

Suggested Reading with Guiding Questions:

The readings suggested for this activity include a reading on the statistics material, Unit 3's Background Information that exemplifies the type of analysis discussed here, and a research article that is a good example of a careful analysis of land use/cover change. Choose the readings most appropriate for the students in your class.
  • Background Information, Units 2 (partial) Background Information Unit 3 (provided)
  • A simple introductory chapter on bivariate graphic depictions, correlation, and regression at instructor's discretion (e.g., Earickson, Robert, and Harlin. [1994]. Geographic measurement and quantitative analysis. Macmillan College Publishing Company: New York; chapter 8 "Bivariate correlation and linear regression")
  • Rudel, Thomas K. 1989. Population, development, and tropical deforestation: A cross- national study. Rural Sociology 54, 3: 327-338 (provided).
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    Activity 3.1 Finding Order in Chaos: Scatterplots

    Goal

    Students learn the basics of plotting data in a coordinate system (tabular data to scatterplot) and understand the concept of correlation between two variables. At the end of the activity, students should know the rules of thumb of when data are positively, negatively, or not at all correlated.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Student Worksheet 3.1 (provided)

    Time Requirements

    10 minutes

    Tasks

    Instructors help students interpret the first two scatterplots on Student Worksheet 3.1. (What does each data point mean? What is measured along the x-, what along the y-axis? etc.) Then let students go through the next two scatterplots. Give them time to think through and discuss the questions with their neighbors, and write down some answers to the first two questions. Make sure they understood the concept of correlation, and stress the fundamental difference between association and causality.

    Then let them find the correct "rules of thumb" for no correlation, positive correlation and negative correlation. Students learn to distinguish between these by using the next two scatter- plots provided on Student Worksheet 3.1. After they have taken some notes, discuss the correct answers in class and then introduce the concept of a linear relationship between two variables. (As the data values of one variable increase, what happens to the other variables' values? How fast is the concurrent increase or decrease?)

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    Activity 3.2 Feeding the Millions

    Goal

    Students plot data in a coordinate system with linear and logarithmic scales and draw a regression line through the data cloud. The principle behind regression is explained.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Student Worksheet 3.2 (provided)
    Suggested or alternative reading on correlation, linear relationships and regression

    Time Requirements

    15 minutes

    Task

    This activity is more easily done after students have understood the basics of scatterplots taught in Activity 3.1. Have students plot the population vs. cropland per capita data in the semi-log graph provided. If students are not very familiar with plotting on the semi-log graph paper, have them do that in pairs, i.e., discuss the task with their neighbor and then each plot the data. Assist them to the extent you deem necessary. Especially help students understand the concept of a logarithmic scale. With each unit on a log-scale, the actual numbers increase tenfold; the log of 10 is 1 because 10 = 10 (x 1) (or 101, ten to the power of one); the log of 100 is 2 because 100 = 10 x 10 (or 102); the log of 1000 is 3 because 1000 = 10 x 10 x 10 (or 103), and so on.

    They should discuss in pairs or small groups what the graph they plotted actually means, i.e., they should qualitatively interpret the findings. Then have them hand-draw a line into the scatterplot that follows the general tendency that the data points seem to indicate. You might want to sketch an example on the blackboard. Refer back to your previous comments on linear relationships, and reiterate them including terms like slope and y-axis intercept. (What does the slope tell us? What does a steep slope mean, what a more gradual slope? For an x-value of 0 [the y-axis intercept], is the y-value positive or negative, and what does that mean?) If you plan to have students do the optional exercises on regression spelled out below, you may want to teach them at this point how to calculate the regression equation.

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    Activity 3.3 What Depends on What in Land Use Change?

    Goal

    Students understand the principles of regression analysis and how regression differs from correlation. They practice simple regression analysis with several short examples.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Student Worksheet 3.3 (provided)
    Suggested or alternative reading on simple regression analysis

    Time Requirements

    Depending on students' familiarity with calculus and the statistics package they will use, 1 hr for in-class explanation and the calculations. Plus interpretation and writing time.

    Task

    This is an optional exercise that may be appropriate if your students have the necessary calculus background or if it is one of the goals of the course to teach regression analysis.

    Introduce the concept of regression (in contrast to or extension of correlation) and how one would go about calculating a regression coefficient and regression line (model). In regression one of the variables is independent of the other, whereas the other variable depends in magnitude on the first; in correlation analysis, such a statement cannot be made. Correlation only determines whether or not two variables change concurrently, and in which direction that concurrent change points.

    Use the data provided in Activity 3.3 (Student Worksheet 3.3) to practice this in class (using either calculators or for simplicity, a spreadsheet software, like QPro, Lotus 1-2-3, Excel, or similar easily accessible programs). Students should be reminded of one of the central questions in the study of LULC change, viz., whether and how human driving forces (in this case population) are related to LULC change (what is dependent on what? Why? Why is the regression coefficient not 1?). Activity and explanation might take as much as one class session.

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    Activity 3.4 Land Use Change and Driving Forces at Different Scales

    Goal

    Students expand their regression analysis skills, this time finding their own driving forces and LULC data. They will demonstrate care in examining the relationships between driving forces and LULC change, paying special attention to geographic scale.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Student Worksheet 3.4 (provided)
    Access to previously found or new data used in the regression analysis

    Time Requirements

    3 days out-of-class work for students (some consultation time with students during office hours should be considered)

    Tasks

    This activity is also optional, and may be considered a take-home follow-up to the previous activity and capstone piece. Students basically apply all they have learned so far in this and previous activities and undertake a regression on a data set of their own choosing. They may refer back to the problem formulation and data acquisition to state a research question (hypothesis) and to use data already found.

    Ask them to present their analysis and findings in either an essay or another creative way, e.g., on a poster or in report form. The emphasis should be on one relationship at different scales. For example, what is the relationship between economic growth and deforestation globally, in the U.S., and in a developing country? Or, what is the relationship between some measure of technological change and the area under permanent crops locally or regionally, nationally and globally? What are the relationships at each scale and what are the differences between them? What might explain the differences (are they due to scale [i.e., aggregation level] or to region-inherent processes)? Also remind students to be careful in their analysis, checking for data quality as much as possible, and to let common sense and caution guide the interpretation.

    Note:

    Activities 3.3 and 3.4 are more difficult than the previous exercises, and possibly not necessary for students to understand the basic idea of a relationship between two variables, variance or scatter around a line, etc. These exercises are included for students who are familiar with basic statistics, and/or for instructors inclined to briefly introduce regression and its calculation in their course. If students understand the notions of scatter and variance, they will have no difficulty understanding the Background Information, Unit 3, in which the relationships between human driving forces and LULC change variables are assessed quantitatively.
     
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    Activity 3.5 Film: Banking on Disaster

    Goal

    The film presents one type of land use change in the tropics and is meant to complement the more abstract activities in this unit. Students recognize the concepts of macro forces and LULC change in the very real and humanized realities of the Brazilian Amazon.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    A copy of the film "Banking on Disaster" (78 minutes)

    Time Requirements

    1 lab session (about 90 minutes for film and short in-class "reaction" time)

    Task

    Watch the film Banking on Disaster -- maybe as a treat at the end of this section. Ask students to take notes on what they think is remarkable, memorable, interesting, or disturbing about it. You may also ask them to pay particular attention to any mention of what they now know are human driving forces (e.g., technological change, population growth, economic development, etc.). Use these comments as a basis for a short in-class reflection on and preliminary discussion of the movie. If you deem it necessary or interesting, give students some background on the situation in Brazil.

    Note that the film is longer than most class sessions. Try to show it in an extra or a lab session.

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    Interpretation of Results

    Goal

    In this last set of activities, students integrate the individual parts of this module by trying to assess what LULC changes mean for them locally, for their region, and for the world. Students should have a final opportunity to "personalize" global change.

    Learning Outcomes

    After completing this set of activities associated with Unit 3, students should

    Choice of Activities

    It is neither necessary nor feasible in most cases to complete all activities in a unit. Instead, select at least two or more from each unit, covering a range of activity types, skills, genres of reading materials, writing assignments, and other activity outcomes. This portion of the unit contains the following activities:

    3.6 Local Change -- Global Forces -- Investigation of local impacts of global change

    3.7 The Personal Land Use Log -- Tracking personal linkages to global land use

    3.8 How Personal is Global Change? -- Class debate

    3.9 What Can We Do About It Anyway? -- Role play

    Suggested Readings

    The following readings make connections between land use/land cover change and global change more generally. They also include "lighter" readings that treat individual places over time and embedded in larger processes.
  • Riebsame, W.E., W.B. Meyer, and B.L. Turner II. 1994. Modeling land use and cover as part of global environmental change. Climatic Change 28: 45-64.
  • Turner II, Billie L. and K.W. Butzer. 1992. The Columbian encounter and land use change. Environment 34, 8: 16-20, 37-44.
  • Wheatley, Nadia and Donna Rawlins. 1994. My place. Brooklyn, NY: Kane/Miller Book Publ. (First American paperback edition, c. 1989).
  • Steward, George R. 1983. Earth abides. New York: Ballentine Books.
  • Finney, Jack. 1970. Time and again. Thorndike, ME: G.K. Mall & Co.
  • Any reading, scientific or "lighter," that captures a local or regional land use/cover change, and that students can try to relate to the global picture. Examples might include deforestation of old growth forest in the Northwest or Northeast, the loss of wild prairie in the Midwest, agricultural and urban pressures on the Everglades or other local wetlands, the South Dakota Badlands as a vivid example of land degradation, urban sprawl onto productive land, etc.
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    Activity 3.6 Local Change -- Global Forces

    Goal

    Students bring global change back home by investigating how macro driving forces have affected their community. They investigate how changes in one or more interlinked human driving force(s) that are global in scope, e.g., technology or the economy, affect social relations, communities, and the environment locally.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Access to the local grange, a farm bureau, a union, an employment office, archives, etc. Some background material and data on the chosen subject (newspaper, journal articles, etc.)
    Battery-operated tape recorder (or simply a note pad and pen)
    (Maybe a camera)
    Suggested or alternative readings

    Time Requirements

    1-2 weeks of information gathering and preparation of a report (a capstone project)

    Task

    Many researchers say that, yes, there might be (or is, or will be) global change -- depending on their level of personal certainty about the issues -- and it does require global-level policy responses, but locally is where people ultimately have to deal with global change, i.e., mitigate potential impacts or suffer negative impacts, or maybe even enjoy beneficial consequences, and then respond to all of these. Locally is also where people have to alter behavior, production processes, consumption or reproductive patterns, etc. Causes, impacts, and responses while global in scope and originating at all scales, are carried out at the local level. This final activity encourages students to look at these local-to-global connections.

    Students should gain a clear understanding of how changes in one or more interlinked human driving force(s) that are global in scope, e.g., technology or the economy, affect social relations, communities, and the environment locally. Changes in agriculture, to a significant part driven by technological changes in the production and marketing processes, are a prime example. The shift from family farms to agribusiness has profoundly changed the make-up of the U.S. economy, the food production, the condition of the environment, the rural and urban landscapes, the relations between farmers and their land and labor, the relation between urban and rural populations, the relations between land owners and farm workers, the structures of families, and so on. Similar changes are likely to be found with other extractive activities or industries affecting land use and land cover, e.g., in mining or forestry, the cotton mills or manufacturing.

    Students should go to the local grange or farm bureau, a union, a historical society or museum etc. to find historical data on a chosen type of activity. For the agriculture example, they might look for data on the number of farms in their community, the size of the farms, the types of farms (what was produced?), the typical family size, number of non-family member workers, etc. Adapt this list for other subjects. In addition, they might look for old photographs and maps in local libraries and archives, and compare them with more recent maps and pictures. Even folk songs or landscape paintings are a wonderful source!

    Encourage them to interview their grandparents or other old folks in their neighborhood or community to get a more personalized notion of Athe old times.@ Questions should relate to the kind of work they did, how they felt about their work and how they felt when things changed; how the community looked 30 years ago, 50 years ago; whether they still know everyone in their neighborhood; where their children are now and what they do for a living; what the landscape looked like (four-lane highways where once were grain fields ...), what is most significant about the changes in the environment for them, etc.

    Students should also look up in history textbooks or regional histories what the "bigger picture" was over the studied period (or else rely on their knowledge of major changes during that time). For example, the invention and use of barbed wire in the last few decades of the 19th century had a most significant impact on the process of "taming the Wild West," and that was very clearly reflected in land use and land cover changes. Remind students repeatedly to be conscious of the scale at which they are looking (local, regional, national, supranational); how did events at one scale affect processes at another?

    This activity can be adapted as work in small groups or pairs. Students should report back to the class with a creative presentation, including visuals and text. If the project is more ambitious, they could produce an exhibit about historical changes of their community, to be put into city hall or a local gallery, which could include photographs, interview excerpts, maps, a time line with significant data, pieces or drawings of old and new technology, etc.

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    Activity 3.7 The Personal Land Use Log

    Goal

    Students track all activities, materials, items, and environmental features that imply some form of land use in order to become aware how much they are personally linked with local-to-global land use/cover change.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Supporting Material 3.7 (provided)
    Note pad and pen

    Time Requirements

    1 day

    Tasks

    Students become aware of how what they use, eat, drink, do, wear, throw away, etc. on a normal day is related to land use and land cover and how it connects them to the rest of the world.

    From the Scottish wool socks and the Indonesian cotton shirt we put on in the morning, to the Midwestern cereal we have for breakfast and the West Indian sugar we stir into our Kenyan coffee, to the local road we travel on to school, to the British Columbian paper we write on, to the Idaho potatoes and California vegetables we have for lunch, to the afternoon swim in the tri-state river, to the backyard garden we grow tomatoes in, to the Nebraskan beefsteak for supper and the ball game played in Boston Gardens we watch on TV -- every resource we use and every way in which we use the land is part of the global land cover and land use. Through economic markets and trade we are connected to the land uses in other parts of the world.

    Supporting Material 3.7 lists examples of actions with their possible land use/land cover connections by thematic categories. Students should not feel limited to these examples; they simply are meant to help them become aware of the many times a day we are indirectly or directly benefitting from land use or enjoying a specific type of land cover. They should also make deliberate efforts to find out about the origin of the products, i.e., look at clothing labels, ingredients lists, etc. and do a little research on where these came from.

    Students should keep a product/item land use log for one day -- or different groups of the class for different part of the day or different groups of items -- and then hand in a clearly organized paper that lists the types of activities that involved land use or land cover, state such connections, and list the countries from which raw material came or where a product was produced. Students may present their results with maps and other graphics.

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    Activity 3.8 How Personal is Global Change?

    Goal

    Students participate in a group discussion or debate in which they assess how global changes would or would not impact them personally. This allows students to apply the abstract knowledge they have gained in this module to a concrete time and place, but also to engage with the subject matter on a personal level.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Background Information, Unit 3 (provided)

    Time Requirements

    20-30 minutes for the debate, not including reading time

    Task

    Students should have read Unit 3. Then they should debate how they do or don't feel that global changes and land use changes (would) affect them. You might give them a specific example to start thinking or you might want to use some of the starter questions listed under the Starter Activity in Unit 1 to kick off the discussion. If the class is very large, split it up into smaller groups and let them discuss the issues. Allow about 20 minutes for that discussion. Alternatively, set up a panel discussion with representatives of different perspectives. In that case, let small groups representing one point of view each meet beforehand to find common ground and to decide on a good strategy for the discussion. For either format, assign individual students to the roles of panel/discussion leader, reporter (taking notes of main arguments and the course of the debate), and process observer (making sure that each panelist/representative gets an adequate amount of time to speak). The instructor functions as an external observer, facilitating light-handedly if necessary. See also Notes on Active Pedagogy on strategies of teaching a controversial issue.

    A short summary and debriefing at the end of the session with the entire class is recommended to gather the major findings, points of contention and conversion (refer to what the reporters noted during the discussions).

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    Activity 3.9 What Can We Do About It Anyway?

    Goal

    In this activity, students are placed in communities in different socioeconomic, political, cultural, and physical environments where they are charged to try to find a compromise in a difficult situation (land use/development decisions). They must addresses ethics (issues of socio-economic, political, intergenerational, and interspecies justice) and practical reality. This activity allows students to see the opportunities and difficulties in making decisions regarding global change.

    Skills

    Material Requirements

    Background Information, Unit 3 (especially the Conclusion) (provided)
    Supporting Materials 3.9a and 3.9b (provided)
    Background readings on environmental problems, living conditions, economic situation, etc. in different parts of the world that highlight the problems people face in their daily lives (optional; at instructor's discretion)

    Time Requirements

    1 class session, not including possible preparation time for students before class

    Task

    This activity requires two pieces of preparation before students embark on the actual role play: For the role play, depending on class size, divide the class into groups of 5-7 students. There are two scenario hand-outs (Supporting Materials 3.9a and 3.9b) of which enough copies should be available (half the class or several groups get one, the other half/groups get the other scenario; preferably one copy per student). There is likely to be more than one group working with each scenario, a situation that will become interesting at the end of this exercise when the groups report back to the entire class and see how differently they dealt with the same situation.

    The scenarios describe two future situations in different parts of the world, facing different types of problems. Each group is made up of members of a community in these different countries, each member with specific problems, assets at hand, and stakes in finding a solution to these problems. In addition, one group member should be an "outsider" -- an observer sent from a neutral international organization who takes notes on the process and the outcome (the instructor should tell this student what to look out for; see the questions below to be answered after the role play). The task for each group is to determine what to do about the situation by deciding

    In short, the activity is an exercise in trying to find a compromise in a difficult situation that addresses ethics (issues of socio-economic, political, intergenerational, and interspecies justice) and practical reality. Because finding such compromises can be extremely difficult and frustrating, the scenario sets group members up as if they really care, and really want to make things work (albeit what that means to people differs greatly!). As students take on their roles and play them out, the instructor should wander from group to group and remind them of this attitude. This may not ensure that all groups will find a compromise, but it should reiterate the idea that global change will ultimately be carried out at the local level and that this is where people have to think of adjustments and work it out.

    After about 15-20 minutes stop the role play and ask the neutral outside observers to report in no more than 2-3 minutes to the class what happened in their groups:

    After each group has reported, debrief the class with some summary findings, a recognition of common difficulties the groups had, and call for a show of hands on the likelihood that each compromise would be brought about in the "real" world for the given scenarios.

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    Last Revised: 6 /15/04 Robert E. Ford rford@univ.llu.edu